ohmysingapore

SINGAPORE: Private residential properties in Singapore saw a sharp fall in rentals and a slight price decline in the first quarter of 2009.

Real estate consultancy firm DTZ in its report on Tuesday said monthly rentals of luxurious homes slid 18.8 per cent to S$5.20 per square foot, a level not seen since the third quarter of 2006.

Rent of units in prime districts also saw a drop, down 16.2 per cent to S$3.65 per square foot per month.

The decline was largely due to corporate downsizing and increased supply from newly completed projects.

DTZ’s findings showed that some 10,122 private residential units were completed in 2008, about 17 per cent more than the annual average of 8,671 units recorded in the past 10 years.

Meanwhile, prices of private homes fell at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2009.

DTZ said prices of freehold private apartments in the prime districts of nine, 10 and 11 dipped by 3.7 per cent to S$1,120 per square feet, compared with the 14 per cent drop in the previous quarter.

Luxurious home prices declined 3.6 per cent after a 22 per cent plunge in the fourth quarter of 2008.

But despite the gloomy economic conditions and job losses, DTZ said response to the two new launches in February created a stir in the property market.

Overwhelming take up rate for Caspian and Alexis also prompted other developers to bring forward new launches and relaunched projects at lower prices. Units in the mid-tier and mass market segments went for under S$1,000 per square foot or about S$1 million per unit.

In all, some 1,323 private homes were sold in February, the highest since August 2007 when 1,731 units changed hands.

- CNA/yb (원문링크)

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SINGAPORE: Private home sales further slowed in January, according to the latest Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) figures. Some 107 deals were completed last month, compared to 131 in December.

Property agents said this was the lowest level recorded in the last two years – even lower than last October when global stock markets slumped.

Even so, developers placed more projects on the market, with 204 units released in January. This was slightly higher than the 157 private homes released a month earlier, which had been the lowest level since June 2007.

Despite these gloomy numbers, real estate agency Propnex Realty expects a brighter February. The firm said this is because there has been good take-up from some recent launches this month.

For instance, the new developments Alexis and Caspian had enjoyed strong take-up with over 750 units sold.

CEO of PropNex Realty, Mohamed Ismail, said: “February has been a good month and is likely to post a record number of transactions, far exceeding the peak of last year – close to 800 over units.” This will be about eight times the number sold in January.

According to property consultant Colliers, potential buyers would have been waiting for the Budget announcement before making any purchase, and were also occupied with preparing for the Lunar New Year.

But while sales were seen picking up, analysts said one trend would likely persist throughout the year.

Director of consultancy and research at Knight Frank, Nicholas Mak, said: “Most units launched and sold by developers last month were in the suburban areas. Launch and sales activities by developers in the prime district almost came to a halt. Less than 10 units were transacted.”

Mohamed Ismail said: “The appetite for many consumers today is when the property price, the overall quantum is less than S$800,000. There are many people willing to buy.

“Not only from the perspective of consumers, even financial institutions and the banks are very comfortable to lend to people for property that are below a million because the risk and spread for the bank is so much better.”

Thus analysts expect most upcoming launches to fall under this category. They said developers may ride the new wave of sales and launch more units in the second half of February.

They said as many as 1,000 units may be launched next month, a level not seen since July 2008.

And to support sales, analysts said that going forward, developers are likely to work with banks on financing schemes. For example, two recent developments launched – Alexis and Caspian – have interest-absorption schemes.

- CNA/yt (원문 보기)

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판매가 없긴 없네요. 08년…

바닥만 찍어두면… 2009년도 부동산하기 재밌는 한해가 될듯 =)

12월부터 fire sale도 주루룩 나오고…

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은행들은 기존의 모기지 대출자들에게 집값(공시지가)이 낮아졌어도 현재의 비율로 모기지를 잘 갚아나가고 있다면, 추가로 공시지가가 낮아진 만큼의 부분을 미리 갚지 않아도 되게 하기로 하였다. 

Get the low-down on home loan top-ups

Banks told BT that as long as borrowers are current in their monthly loan installments, they will not ask for fresh valuations which could then lead to a top-up. ‘By the same token, when the loan is disbursed, as long as the customer can meet the monthly repayment amounts, the bank will not usually take any other course of action against the customer, even if valuations of these properties are now lower than that at the time of purchase.’, said a DBS spkesperson. MAS said non-performing housing loans are currently low and expects no significant increase. The UOB spokeswoman says the bank periodically reviews its mortgage portfolio, including the update of property values.

- The Business Times, P1

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싱가폴 민영 주택 (콘도, 아파트 및 특정 지역의 개인 주택 등) 시장이 전형적인 약세 신호를 보이고 있다는 소식이 보도 되었습니다.

지난 3분기 주택 시장 통계를 분석한 결과 아래와 같은 3가지 경향이 뚜렸해 그동안 외국인 투자자 중심의 민영 주택 거래가 HDB에서 콘도나 아파트로 업그레이드 하기 위한 내국인 중심으로 빠르게 변화되고 있습니다.

- 완공전 주택의 거래 감소

- 외국인의 구매 감소

- HDB 거주자의 구매 및 비율 증가

조사 결과에 따르면 3분기 민영 주택 거래는 2분기에 비해 8% 감소 하였으며 완공전 주택의 거래 (sub-sale)는 2분기 전체 거래의 16%를 차지 하였던 것이 3분기에는 13%로 줄었습니다. 또한 sf당 1,000불 이상의 고급 주택 거래는 전 분기에 비해 24.2% 줄어들어 고급 주택의 거래가 상대적으로 더 크게 줄어 들었습니다.

또한 외국인에 의한 주택 구매가 전체 거래에서 차지하는 비중도 전분기 25%에서 22%로 줄어 들었습니다.

이렇게 고급 주택, 완공전 주택, 외국인의 거래 감소가 상대적으로 큰 것은 작년말까지 싱가폴 주택 가격 상승을 주도했던 외국인 투자자들이 경제 환경이 악화됨에 따라 투자를 꺼리고 있는 것이 한가지 이유이고 환율까지 고려할 때 싱가폴에 비해 가격 하락폭이 더 커 투자 고려 대상이 되는 다른 도시들이 생겨나고 있기 때문이라고 합니다.

반면에 구매자가 현재 HDB에 거주하고 있어 HDB에서 민영 주택으로 업그레이드 하기 위한 경우라고 예상되는 거래는 지난 분기에 비해 거래 건수는 34% 늘었고 전체 거래에서 차지하는 비중도 34%에서 41%로 크게 늘어났습니다.

이는 민영 주택 가격이 계속해서 하락해 온 반면 HDB 가격은 상승세를 지속 해 왔기 때문에 민영 주택과 HDB 가격 차이가 줄어들어 콘도와 아파트로 이주하기 위한 싱가폴 내국인 수요가 커지고 있기 때문으로 분석되고 있습니다.

전문가들은 경제 상황에 따라 전체적인 주택 가격 하락이 계속될 것으로 예측하면서 외국인 투자자들의 관심이 급속히 식은 고가 주택의 하락폭이 상대적으로 더 크고 중저가 민영주택은 상대적으로 타격이 덜 할 것으로 예상하고 있다고 합니다.

(그래프를 클릭하시면 크게 보실 수 있습니다.)

Property market now shows classic signs of downturn
Analysis of Q3 caveats by DTZ points to new trends relating to subsales, foreign buying, HDB upgraders

Three classic signs of a Singapore property downturn have emerged in the third quarter – a slide in subsales and foreign buying, but a bigger share of HDB upgraders in the private home buying pie.

Property consultancy DTZ’s analysis of caveats for private home purchases shows that total subsales of non-landed private homes fell 8 per cent to 473 units in Q3 from the previous quarter. Subsales also accounted for a smaller 13 per cent share of purchases of non-landed private homes in Q3, compared with 16 per cent in Q2.

Subsales of high-end condos/apartments slowed down even more in Q3 2008. The number of subsale purchases involving units priced at least $1,000 psf fell 24.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter to only 213 transactions, accounting for 45 per cent of overall subsales of non-landed private homes in Q3, against 54 per cent in Q2 2008.

The number of foreign buyers (including permanent residents) of private homes (both landed and non-landed) slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 903 in Q3. Also, these buyers made up 22 per cent of total private home deals in the quarter, down from 25 per cent in Q2.

DTZ senior director (research) Chua Chor Hoon said: ‘A large proportion of foreigners buy for investment. Hence when prices are falling, there is less interest. Furthermore, with economies and property markets slowing down all over the world, many of the foreigners have been affected back home and they may pull out their overseas investments.’

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah also points out that attractive property values are emerging in other cities which Singapore will be competing with. ‘Foreign investors have lots more opportunities to consider where to invest,’ she added.

The dip in subsales may be due to the fact that it has become more difficult for ’specuvestors’ and speculators to offload their properties in the current quiet market.

‘For investors who take a long-term view, especially for better assets, the tendency would be to ride out the market,’ says Mrs Ong.

HDB dwellers tend to make up a bigger proportion of private home buyers during a property downturn. ‘Many of them are buying for owner occupation. Some may be sitting pretty on gains on their existing HDB flats which they bought directly from the HDB some years ago. Together with CPF savings, it may be easier for them to cross over to private homes,’ notes Mrs Ong.

Buyers with HDB addresses picked up 1,718 private homes in Q3, up 34 per cent from the previous quarter.

Their share of caveats lodged for private home purchases rose to 41 per cent in Q3, from shares of 34 per cent in Q2 and 28 per cent in Q1 this year. HDB upgraders’ 41 per cent share of private home purchases in the July-Sept quarter was the highest quarterly share in four years.

‘The trend was supported by the narrowing gap between HDB resale flat prices and private home prices in Q3, as HDB resale prices continued to increase while private home prices fell,’

Ms Chua said the latest Q3 jump in private homes bought by HDB dwellers was mainly in the primary market. The number of units these HDB dwellers picked up from developers leapt 89 per cent from Q2.

Livia in Pasir Ris and Clover by the Park in Bishan were the two most popular projects among HDB buyers in Q3, with 192 units and 142 units respectively sold to HDB upgraders.

Analysts say HDB upgraders’ share of total private home purchases may rise further. In Q2 2002, their share surged to 81 per cent and at the trough of the Asian Financial Crisis property slump in Q4 1998, the figure was 68 per cent.

Subsales refer to secondary market deals in projects that have yet to receive their Certificates of Statutory Completion. This may be anywhere from three to 12 months after the project gets its Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).

DTZ said that for total subsale deals of non-landed private homes, the median price continued to fall in Q3, easing 11 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $941 psf – the lowest since Q3 2006, according to DTZ. ‘In view of softening market demand, owners are more realistic in asking prices,’ it said.

The Sail @ Marina Bay got the strongest subsale interest in Q3, with 30 deals (compared with 34 in Q2). The median subsale price for the project slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1,719 psf, following a 14 per cent slide in Q2.

Median subsale prices also fell 3 per cent for Park Infinia at Wee Nam to $1,380 psf, The Esta (slipping 5 per cent to $910 psf) and City Square Residences (down 6 per cent to $960 psf).

Mrs Ong expects subsales to continue trending downwards although there will be spikes as major projects get their TOP. That’s when there’s usually more sales activity as the finished product can be viewed by potential buyers and the prospects of renting the units would increase the appeal of such homes to potential investors.

[출처: The Business Times]

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1월에 5~10% 하락할 것으로 예상되는 부동산 가격은 1월에 최저치를 맞고, 2월부터 회복될 것으로 전망된다.

개발사에서는 고가의 부동산 상품들은 판매를 안하고, 공급이 제한되어 집값을 지켜줄 전망이기 때문이다.

싱가포르의 3대 메이저 개발사인 Far East Group, Capital Land와 시티 개발사에서는 분양되기로 했던 유닛을 내놓지 않고, 분양 가격을 높일 계획이다.

Property investors here might feel like cutting and running but the best advice is to sit tight and hold on, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers(PwC) report. About 65 percent of those pooled urged investors in Singapore real estate to hold on to their investments in the hotel sector and in rental apartments. Other sectors here, namely office, retail and industrial/distribution, each attracted hold recommendations from at least 50 percent of those surveyed. The strongest buy recommendations came from the industrial/distribution sector, with 34.8 percent of respondents urging investors to plough in more cash. Singapore maintained its second position from last year among 20 Asia-Pacific cities for investment prospects. Tokyo was first.

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  ‘Buy property stocks now, reap fruits later’

WHEELOCK Properties (Singapore) CEO David Lawrence, in his private capacity, is currently investing in Singapore property counters. Although Wheelock is in the business of selling apartments, Mr Lawrence reckons that next year may be a better time to buy condos. Instead, his advice to investors looking for value is to buy property counters at the moment ‘because they are so cheap and can give you great returns over the next couple of years’, he said in a recent interview with BT.

‘The indirect market – which is property counters – is completely out of line with the physical market. So the real value at the moment – and it won’t be there for long – is the indirect market. Some of these shares have come down so much. They’re good companies.

‘It’s an arbitrage opportunity, because they’ve come down so much they bear no relationship to property prices. What’s probably going to happen is that stock prices will go up, property prices will come down a little. They will meet eventually but at the moment there is a big arbitrage opportunity for people,’ he added.

He acknowledged that it will be a tough couple of years for the local property market. ‘But then Singapore is going to be the big beneficiary of this crash, crisis, credit crunch, whatever you call it. Because there aren’t many places like this left to go. I have a lot of international friends – from Europe, India, China, USA – with lots of money who will be retiring or moving to Singapore.

‘When you look around, where else can you get good security, drug-free culture, government investing heavily in new businesses, a reasonable balance between financial services and manufacturing?’

Most importantly, Singapore has integrity in government and the banking and corporate sectors, as well as security. ‘If ever Singapore loses that integrity and security, then it’s finished. But I don’t think it will. It’s ingrained,’ says the 62-year-old, who became a Singapore citizen two years ago.

Singapore will also stand out in the race among global property investment destinations because of the strength of its judicial system, he argues. ‘For me, property investment is all about judiciary. There’s no point going into countries where they are very happy for you to lose money. As soon as you start making money, they want to cut it up. You get sued. It goes to a corrupt judiciary. You don’t make money. I am not interested. Now I think there’s lot of opportunity to invest in financial centres with good judiciaries.’

He takes issue with investment guru Marc Faber who suggests buying property in the countryside, not financial centres. ‘I totally disagree with that. If you buy in financial centres and you buy good-quality products from good developers, you will always be able to let the property. When markets get really bad, and property starts emptying out, people upgrade to the best, and Ardmore Park is a perfect example. . . And long-term, quality property is a good hedge against inflation.’ Ardmore Park is a condo Wheelock launched in 1996, around the height of the property bull run.

Given the current global financial crash, Mr Lawrence acknowledges that Singapore home prices will see a correction, without specifying the quantum of price declines. He does not think the slump will be as bad as the one during the 1997/98 Asian crisis. ‘I don’t think things will be that bad, particularly for good products, because fortunately we have a strong banking system here,’ says Mr Lawrence. ‘We have the Monetary Authority of Singapore and strong banks. They never allowed this crazy lending like they did in other countries. Most people can service their loans.’

Other plus points this time round are low interest rates and huge liquidity in the system, he adds. ‘There will be job losses. Some people might not be able to make their mortgage payments. I think most will, if they have not been speculating in too many properties.’

Wheelock recently collected 25 per cent of sales proceeds for The Cosmopolitan, its fully sold condo at River Valley/Kim Seng roads, when the project received Temporary Occupation Permit. ‘We had a 100 per cent payment on time. No problems,’ he reveals.

Mr Lawrence acknowledges that in the short term, some developers – new players and underfunded ones – will have to cut prices. ‘But the strong boys like (Kwek) Leng Beng and Ng Teng Fong (chairmen of Hong Leong Group and Far East Organization, respectively), these people are not going to cut prices. They’ve been here before. They’ll hold it through to the next cycle, which will come.’

For the Singapore office market, prime Grade A rents may ease about 10 per cent in the next 12 months, Mr Lawrence predicts. But this is ‘OK and reasonable’ given that rents had been getting out of hand previously.

‘But long term, the government has plenty of land to expand. I think as government policy, it’s very important to have reasonably priced office accommodation to expand the Singapore economy in the same way as the government always had reasonably priced industrial land and space to expand the industrial economy.’

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08/11/16

주택 가격 하락으로 주택 담보 대출이 받기가 까다로워지고 있다. (비지니스타임즈)

08/11/18

10월에 50명의 부동산 매수자가 매수 포기 (비지니스타임즈)

08/11/21

최고급 주택의 가격이 20% 하락할 것으로 본다. (비지니스타임즈)

콘도 등의 렌트 가격이 15% 정도 하락할 것으로 본다. (The Straits Times)

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