싱가폴 민영 주택 (콘도, 아파트 및 특정 지역의 개인 주택 등) 시장이 전형적인 약세 신호를 보이고 있다는 소식이 보도 되었습니다.
지난 3분기 주택 시장 통계를 분석한 결과 아래와 같은 3가지 경향이 뚜렸해 그동안 외국인 투자자 중심의 민영 주택 거래가 HDB에서 콘도나 아파트로 업그레이드 하기 위한 내국인 중심으로 빠르게 변화되고 있습니다.
- 완공전 주택의 거래 감소
- 외국인의 구매 감소
- HDB 거주자의 구매 및 비율 증가
조사 결과에 따르면 3분기 민영 주택 거래는 2분기에 비해 8% 감소 하였으며 완공전 주택의 거래 (sub-sale)는 2분기 전체 거래의 16%를 차지 하였던 것이 3분기에는 13%로 줄었습니다. 또한 sf당 1,000불 이상의 고급 주택 거래는 전 분기에 비해 24.2% 줄어들어 고급 주택의 거래가 상대적으로 더 크게 줄어 들었습니다.
또한 외국인에 의한 주택 구매가 전체 거래에서 차지하는 비중도 전분기 25%에서 22%로 줄어 들었습니다.
이렇게 고급 주택, 완공전 주택, 외국인의 거래 감소가 상대적으로 큰 것은 작년말까지 싱가폴 주택 가격 상승을 주도했던 외국인 투자자들이 경제 환경이 악화됨에 따라 투자를 꺼리고 있는 것이 한가지 이유이고 환율까지 고려할 때 싱가폴에 비해 가격 하락폭이 더 커 투자 고려 대상이 되는 다른 도시들이 생겨나고 있기 때문이라고 합니다.
반면에 구매자가 현재 HDB에 거주하고 있어 HDB에서 민영 주택으로 업그레이드 하기 위한 경우라고 예상되는 거래는 지난 분기에 비해 거래 건수는 34% 늘었고 전체 거래에서 차지하는 비중도 34%에서 41%로 크게 늘어났습니다.
이는 민영 주택 가격이 계속해서 하락해 온 반면 HDB 가격은 상승세를 지속 해 왔기 때문에 민영 주택과 HDB 가격 차이가 줄어들어 콘도와 아파트로 이주하기 위한 싱가폴 내국인 수요가 커지고 있기 때문으로 분석되고 있습니다.
전문가들은 경제 상황에 따라 전체적인 주택 가격 하락이 계속될 것으로 예측하면서 외국인 투자자들의 관심이 급속히 식은 고가 주택의 하락폭이 상대적으로 더 크고 중저가 민영주택은 상대적으로 타격이 덜 할 것으로 예상하고 있다고 합니다.
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Property market now shows classic signs of downturn
Analysis of Q3 caveats by DTZ points to new trends relating to subsales, foreign buying, HDB upgraders
Three classic signs of a Singapore property downturn have emerged in the third quarter – a slide in subsales and foreign buying, but a bigger share of HDB upgraders in the private home buying pie.
Property consultancy DTZ’s analysis of caveats for private home purchases shows that total subsales of non-landed private homes fell 8 per cent to 473 units in Q3 from the previous quarter. Subsales also accounted for a smaller 13 per cent share of purchases of non-landed private homes in Q3, compared with 16 per cent in Q2.
Subsales of high-end condos/apartments slowed down even more in Q3 2008. The number of subsale purchases involving units priced at least $1,000 psf fell 24.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter to only 213 transactions, accounting for 45 per cent of overall subsales of non-landed private homes in Q3, against 54 per cent in Q2 2008.
The number of foreign buyers (including permanent residents) of private homes (both landed and non-landed) slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 903 in Q3. Also, these buyers made up 22 per cent of total private home deals in the quarter, down from 25 per cent in Q2.
DTZ senior director (research) Chua Chor Hoon said: ‘A large proportion of foreigners buy for investment. Hence when prices are falling, there is less interest. Furthermore, with economies and property markets slowing down all over the world, many of the foreigners have been affected back home and they may pull out their overseas investments.’
DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah also points out that attractive property values are emerging in other cities which Singapore will be competing with. ‘Foreign investors have lots more opportunities to consider where to invest,’ she added.
The dip in subsales may be due to the fact that it has become more difficult for ’specuvestors’ and speculators to offload their properties in the current quiet market.
‘For investors who take a long-term view, especially for better assets, the tendency would be to ride out the market,’ says Mrs Ong.
HDB dwellers tend to make up a bigger proportion of private home buyers during a property downturn. ‘Many of them are buying for owner occupation. Some may be sitting pretty on gains on their existing HDB flats which they bought directly from the HDB some years ago. Together with CPF savings, it may be easier for them to cross over to private homes,’ notes Mrs Ong.
Buyers with HDB addresses picked up 1,718 private homes in Q3, up 34 per cent from the previous quarter.
Their share of caveats lodged for private home purchases rose to 41 per cent in Q3, from shares of 34 per cent in Q2 and 28 per cent in Q1 this year. HDB upgraders’ 41 per cent share of private home purchases in the July-Sept quarter was the highest quarterly share in four years.
‘The trend was supported by the narrowing gap between HDB resale flat prices and private home prices in Q3, as HDB resale prices continued to increase while private home prices fell,’
Ms Chua said the latest Q3 jump in private homes bought by HDB dwellers was mainly in the primary market. The number of units these HDB dwellers picked up from developers leapt 89 per cent from Q2.
Livia in Pasir Ris and Clover by the Park in Bishan were the two most popular projects among HDB buyers in Q3, with 192 units and 142 units respectively sold to HDB upgraders.
Analysts say HDB upgraders’ share of total private home purchases may rise further. In Q2 2002, their share surged to 81 per cent and at the trough of the Asian Financial Crisis property slump in Q4 1998, the figure was 68 per cent.
Subsales refer to secondary market deals in projects that have yet to receive their Certificates of Statutory Completion. This may be anywhere from three to 12 months after the project gets its Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
DTZ said that for total subsale deals of non-landed private homes, the median price continued to fall in Q3, easing 11 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $941 psf – the lowest since Q3 2006, according to DTZ. ‘In view of softening market demand, owners are more realistic in asking prices,’ it said.
The Sail @ Marina Bay got the strongest subsale interest in Q3, with 30 deals (compared with 34 in Q2). The median subsale price for the project slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1,719 psf, following a 14 per cent slide in Q2.
Median subsale prices also fell 3 per cent for Park Infinia at Wee Nam to $1,380 psf, The Esta (slipping 5 per cent to $910 psf) and City Square Residences (down 6 per cent to $960 psf).
Mrs Ong expects subsales to continue trending downwards although there will be spikes as major projects get their TOP. That’s when there’s usually more sales activity as the finished product can be viewed by potential buyers and the prospects of renting the units would increase the appeal of such homes to potential investors.
[출처: The Business Times]
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